It’s time to shake off the winter chill and welcome the fresh competition of Spring! The Spring 2025 Season of the Cribbage Pro Competitive Matchmaking Tournament is here – bringing a new opportunity to climb the ranks, refine your skills, and battle it out against the best. Whether you're looking to defend your position or make a name for yourself, now’s the time!
Before we jump into the action of Spring 2025, let’s take a quick look back at how the Winter 2025 season wrapped up.
Winter 2025
The Winter 2025 season brought in an impressive number of players, coming close to setting a new record for winter participation—historically the busiest season of the year. While feedback on this season’s changes was mixed, the overwhelming response was very positive, so we’ll be keeping the same format for Spring 2025. In the meantime, we’re focusing on developing exciting new features for the game later this year. This competitive matchmaking format continues to grow as the largest cribbage tournament available anywhere, and that’s all thanks to you. We truly appreciate your participation!
This Winter 2025 season saw a lot of changes in the Leaderboard over last season, with several of the top cribbage players showing up to bring their best game to the contest. However, I should also mention that we saw multiple players drop from their positions in the Top 50 during the last few weeks of the season simply due to lack of completing the 10 matches per week. It is important to remember that those adjustments that impact your CR from lack of meeting the minimum are "progressive" and build from week to week. At the same time if you return to getting your matches in even after missing a week or two, you can often recover if you can get enough new matches completed.
For the final results, holding on to first place we have a somewhat "regular" here, with "iPeg", followed by someone we have also seen near the top before with "TC2" in 2nd with a past best of 2nd place as well many seasons back (and in the top 10 / 50 multiple times too). In 3rd we have "Dhrun" up from 6th last season, and similarly someone who isn't new to the top positions (achieving 1st a few seasons back). Lastly, as honorable mentions for Winter 2025, we have "ernie313" who came all the way up from 43rd last season (and has a best of 2nd), to 8th this season and "Alaska47" up to 15th (a new personal best) from 46th! I also want to add a special thank you to "Alaska47" for helping to identify and squash a bug in the system this past season. I genuinely appreciate everyone who takes the time to report issues rather than assuming we already know—it truly helps make the game better for everyone!
With Winter 2025 now in the books, it’s time for a fresh start. Who will rise to the challenge this season? Let’s find out—see you on the leaderboard!
Special awards for the Top 50 players include in-game board pegs: the top player receives the "crown" peg, while others in the Top 50 get the "star" peg. These pegs are prominently displayed in online multiplayer games, serving as permanent badges of distinction earned through competitive play.
Reminder: Complete 10 matches per week! See the FAQ for details on the timing each week
Here was the final Top 50 for Winter 2025:
| 1 | iPeg | 26 | Crackula | |
| 2 | TC2 | 27 | jeezumjan | |
| 3 | Dhrun | 28 | pegmstr77 | |
| 4 | DAiello | 29 | TLC1966 | |
| 5 | nob4one | 30 | lbolt58 | |
| 6 | dcpastore | 31 | nvsru911 | |
| 7 | VGKnights | 32 | mm1515 | |
| 8 | ernie313 | 33 | Ronalds66 | |
| 9 | cyrusg | 34 | card55 | |
| 10 | kb92129 | 35 | niltes | |
| 11 | Br1Guy | 36 | Mrpadre | |
| 12 | Jimmymc | 37 | TheArgus | |
| 13 | FEC | 38 | Kinger765 | |
| 14 | SHOOTRR | 39 | Domerzag | |
| 15 | Alaska47 | 40 | 4KA | |
| 16 | AZwriter | 41 | grembin | |
| 17 | GregVee | 42 | dph | |
| 18 | jwr13 | 43 | vJimc | |
| 19 | RMK800 | 44 | Chivastt2 | |
| 20 | gsosin | 45 | catpat | |
| 21 | konadive | 46 | SamGash33 | |
| 22 | scout3 | 47 | shaneojak | |
| 23 | jjonell | 48 | BigCrbNRG | |
| 24 | Dpac | 49 | BennieO | |
| 25 | pscohen | 50 | warrior14 |
As always, if you have any questions, feedback on what you would like to see around awards, structure / format or anything else, email us any time at support@FullerSystems.com.
I do wish the game was totally random. It is obvious early on when the computer is going to dictate who wins. You learn the computer and try and second guess, but??? I love the game, the site is OK, just wish the outcome was not predetermined.
ReplyDeleteHi, good news, the card shuffle is absolutely random. As we have shown extensively with clear empirical evidence and published audits, it isn't stacking the deck or anything else like that whatsoever. See the FAQ for details, and follow the links there for the deeper discussion. If you do that and have any questions about it, email us any time at support@FullerSystems.com
DeleteBig Bull 12, I agree wholeheartedly. I don't think the intention is to be unfair, but for those of us who have been playing for decades know, it's clearly a flawed dealing system. Things that never happen in real life always happen here.
DeleteEvery season I start out getting buried by people who have no place winning, but get the most incredible hands and cribs. You can only beat someone 98-92 in hand scores so many times in a row where their average hand is like 10.5 and yours is 7.2 before you realize you're not winning regardless. I work in statistics and understand all too well that these things can happen, but they happen far too often to be considered random. It's demotivational and makes me want to quit.
In addition, I know from experience here that if you EVER place any cards within a few ranks of each other, your opponent is going to crush it in the crib so I've become accustomed to never being able to take risks there because you know what's going to happen.
It's a shame because I love cribbage and I play all the time and have in real life as well for decades but the constant inequity has me absolutely frustrated. The system has a predisposition to giving the better hands to the higher ranked player at the time. That being said, I've been the beneficiary in that situation as well but even then it's unfair and I just have to be happy that it's rigged for me in those instances. I love this app and I love cribbage but the faulty dealing is just becoming too frustrating. Now that the same thing has happened AGAIN and I went through an 8 game losing streak, I know I'll only be offered playing the low ranked people which makes it virtually impossible to catch up. Rather than spewing the company line about tests being done and it being completely random, I wish more testing and review of past games would be done until this issue could actually be rectified.
Hi "DrewBlue", if you "work in statistics" and want to conduct analysis against actual game data, I'm definitely open to letting you do that. I have let others before you do the same, and that is where several of the blog posts come from. These aren't just empty claims to being random. If you understand statistics, then I'm sure you can appreciate the data and audits I have already published too. Again, if you have the skills and background needed to conduct such analysis, email me any time at support@FullerSystems.com and we can work out how to get you access and conduct the analysis yourself. Let's develop and test your hypothesis.
DeleteFrankly, BigBull, and DrewBlue for that matter, that’s a big load of bull. It’s your excuse for not having the skill needed to be an elite player, simple as that.
DeleteYou can say the game is random and fair, but I call BS. It is amazing how many times when playing against a Grand Master, they repeatedly got 20+ hands, sometimes more than once in a single game!!!! The “computer” recognizes the supposed master and like other sports, the “master” is favored. Hell, I have played too many games where I am at 100% in my choice of held cards and get crushed by the “grand masters”. And don’t even start me on how I am about to win, and the “GM” pulls out a 20 plus to win on the last “random” draw. It is one thing where they out peg me, but another when they are just so lucky to have the knack of getting monster hands! And forget about the “random” cut for first dealer….they automatically get the 54% probability to win.
DeleteYes, I just got beat by a 4300 master who got a 20 and 24 hand. BS
Drewblew, you're probably not imagining the fact that higher rated players are getting better hands than you. This is probably not due to a biased random number generator, but it's because they're better discarders than you.
ReplyDeleteSince I keep track of my stats, I can tell you that last season my hand average was 8.01 (vs 7.89 for my opponents), pegging 2.74 (vs 2.48 for my opponents), crib score 5.07 (vs 4.72). The discrepancy in hand scores is probably due to my opponents' dubious discard strategy rather than me getting better cards than them. My 8.01 hand average is probably a lot less than you imagine I'm getting.
For example, here are some common mistakes people make. For, 2356JQ most people would probably discard 56 into their own crib. However, optimal discard is the 23. For, 23678J, most people would discard J3 into their crib. Again, optimal discard is the 23.
Dhrun. What is your opinion of 3 of a kind (excluding 5s)? Worth preserving, or are you better off getting rid of one of the cards? Quite often I find myself out pegged when I am holding a 3-oak.
DeleteI almost never break up my 3 of a kind because the 4 point loss is too much to make up. I don't see a problem pegging with 3 of a kind as the dealer. However, as the nondealer, things can get a little trickier. Generally, I lead from my trips as it gives me more flexibility in navigating my opponent's moves. For example, if I'm holding A777, I lead from the 7. If I had led the ace and my opponent responds with a 6, 8 or something similar, I'm trapped into giving up some runs to my opponent. With the 7 lead, you can break up any potential runs by playing the ace.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI think that 10 matches per week is too many. 7 matches - 1 per day, seems more reasonable.
I get 10 matches in within a couple of days, each match is roughly 10 minutes, that's not a lot of time in a week
DeleteHello. Is it possible to get a breakdown of the stats for the each of the 2-3 games played against an opponent, as opposed to cumulative stats for the set? It would be interesting to see the back and forth in a set of matches (e.g. game 1 and 2 were one-sided, but game 3 was close and decided by pegging).
ReplyDeleteAll of the hands, cribs, and pegging are available after the match, but it would take some manual number crunching to get the per game totals and averages. These numbers aren’t available for classic play multi game matches either, but I they may be of interest to some players, maybe two or three besides Cyrus ;)
DeleteI have little doubt that the algorithms are fair. However, when you are in that extended losing streak (I've gone as many as 19 matches) it is difficult to fight the feeling that the game wants you to lose
ReplyDeleteIt is very obvious from the start when the computer is going to make you lose, There should be a penalty free way to surrender . Also, 52 cards in the deck, 12 cards on the deal, the odds of 5’s every hand are virtually astronomical.
ReplyDeleteI would not say astronomical. More like 66% of there being a 5 in the 12 cards on the deal. Compare that with a 99% probability of a 10-value card being among the initial 12 dealt.
DeleteActually for both hands to have a five on the deal is 1 in 13, which is less than 8%. The odds of it happening on the next hand are much less. It happens more than that which becomes ?? You tell me.
Delete1 in 13 (8%) is the chance that the FIRST card dealt is a five.
DeleteTo calculate the odds of a five-card in the first 12 cards is more complex. Here is how.
Calculate how many different ways 12 cards can be dealt out of a 52 card deck. 206,379,406,870
Then calculate have many different ways 12 cards can be dealt from a deck with the fives removed; a 48 card deck. 69,668,534,468.
From these number you can calculate the probability that a five is NOT DEALT in the first 12 cards.
69,668,534,468 / 206,379,406,870 = 34%.
Therefore the probability of at least one five is 66%
Big Bull, DrewBlue, a lot of luck is involved in cribbage. Even the best players are going to lose 40% of the time no matter what they do. Conversely, you will win 40% of the time due to your own good fortune and favorable cards. It’s very easy, but incorrect to fall into a mindset that attributes your 40% wins to what you believe is your skill/cribbage genius and your 40% losses to less skilled players to the game being “rigged,” “not fair” or “bad cards.” Yes, it’s most frustrating losing to inferior players but that’s cribbage. Try to channel that frustration into critically examining and improving your game to better your odds for those 20% of matches where your pegging and discard decisions can make a difference in the outcome. When I did this, I found numerous blind spots and pre-conceived pegging and discard notions that I had to adjust. Fuller’s hand grades are very helpful. I now consistently finish in the top 10 most seasons but still feel that I have much to learn. I’m still getting schooled consistently by the likes of IPeg (he has not won this 5-6 times by being “lucky”) and Dhrun. When you play at a top level against top players like them, one incorrect discard or pegging decision will cost you the match. And with only 6-10 seconds to make those tough decisions, it’s not an easy task. But what a fun challenge it is. For those 20% of tight matches, improving your win rate by just 1%-2% will show substantial results. There is always more to learn from this game. Good luck!
DeleteNot a lot of incentive to keep playing when you're in the top 30 b/c the risk isn't worth the reward. When you get matched up with someone whose CR is 1000 points lower than yours you literally get 1 point if you win the match.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the rating system is counterintuitive because it encourages limiting your play to maximize your CR. Even though I'm in the top 30 I'd need a couple hundred consecutive wins to go for the top spot. That explains why the top player currently has a combined 52 games.
DeleteNot sure why the developer would set up a matchmaking system to penalize top players and discourage them from playing.
Any good skill ranking system I'm aware of will often have similar impacts. As you rank higher, by definition there are fewer and fewer people to play against at that relative rank. If you review the system used (like the Glicko 2 system), and have some specific changes you think would improve things, I'm always open to hearing it. One of the key issues here is simply that there are significant luck factors in cribbage that takes many games to balance out. A best of 3 does help, but it would need to be much more to truly account for it mathematically. This is why we also require 10 matches per week. At some point you have to balance games required with the practical aspects of the reasonable limits to people's time and availability.
DeleteI get what you're trying to accomplish with a rating system but from a player experience perspective it doesn't work well IMO. What's the point of a competitive league when you're matching up players with a 1,100+ difference in CR? If the higher player wins they get 3 points at best. The biggest jumps in win/loss take place during the first couple weeks of the season and then it dwindles down to a few points/game. When there's nearly 300 points between the top 30 players there's no incentive to keep working your way towards the top, you're incentivizing players to play as few games as possible. I'd rather see players encouraged to play more games and just use a fixed point allocation for match wins/losses.
DeleteThanks for the feedback. Points systems have their place, but like you implied, I'm going for something different here with a skill ranking. I personally don't like systems that favor those who can simply play more often. Still, I'm always looking to improve and really do appreciate the input.
DeleteLast season I played more matches than approximately 27 of the top 50 players and was able to finish first. Whether you play a little or a lot, you have to win often to finish near the top.
DeleteHave there been any changes to the CR point calculations this season? Higher totals, top 20 are all over 4400, #50 at 4315, much higher levels than any previous season I can recall. Don’t think there have been any changes as I know you’re up front with everything. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThere haven't been any changes to the system this season.
DeleteI think there's a definite glitch in this season's ratings. I'm only losing 4 to 5 points per loss when I should be losing 3 times more. Also, it seems everybody I'm facing is 4200+. I never get such favorable pairings.
DeleteThat code for CR calculation has not been changed in years. I'm not saying it's impossible that something else changed and it impacted it somehow, but it definitely should not have. All the supporting code libraries should also not have changed. I plan to still dig through things in more detail to make sure everything is working correctly.
DeleteA quick update on your concerns. First, with respect to the CR rankings you see, I compared with the first few weeks of the last 6 seasons, and I found several where players had higher CR than the highest this season so far, several that had lower CR, and one that was close to the same. So this does happen, particularly early in a season. The other thing I can see is that this season is having more players playing more games than many past seasons, and so that is a factor here as well. I have also double checked all the math, and the underlying systems used to calculate everything, and it all checks out. Nothing has changed in that respect at all.
DeleteThe game is great. I see above comments that people are frustrated feeling cards are stacked. I also have times where it feels like it’s rigged getting so bad cards. However I am absolutely convinced it is random. The players consistently at the top certainly have better strategy. This season it feels hard to rise in CR though. Just had 2 matches with players around 3600. Won both, barely, gained a total of 5 CR points in those games. I know I’d I lost those I would have dropped maybe 20. Maybe it’s always been this way just will be really hard to rise up. My goal is now to get to 60% win and not worry about CR.
DeleteCould you provide more detail on the hide/block player feature that was changed in the most recent app update? A lot of us liked having “hidden” players grouped at the bottom of current active players. It was helpful to see when top 50 players were active to try get a decent competitive match. Now all “hidden” players seem to truly be hidden. What was behind the change? Liked it better then old way. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe change you mentioned now makes "Hide" actually do what it strongly implies it should have always done - hide the other user (and their games) entirely from the list. The other new features around this now also let you better manage that list, so you can easily add or remove someone from the "Hide" list at any time, even if they are not online at the time (a feature often requested). If you were using the "Hide" feature for something other than actually hiding a player and/or blocking them from the classic multiplayer games, then that is a different question and not something I would have tried to preserve with this change, simply because that is not the intended use of a hide feature. Specifically to your use case of knowing if someone may be online or not, that is what the Friends system is best at doing for you. However, the idea you present here of trying to identify when someone in the Top 50 competitive system is online and playing, would not actually work very well today, and it hasn't for a little while now. This is because there have been changes made on the game servers in preparation for some other features that make it so that if someone is not in the classic multiplayer lobby area, they are now no longer on that list at all. That players list is now just showing players in the classic multiplayer games lobby, as was originally intended for it. If a player goes to the competitive matchmaking side and starts finding a match, or is in a competitive game, they will not be on that list at all as they are not in the classic multiplayer lobby at that point. So the use case you are describing is simply not going to work even for those on older versions of the game on their devices. Lastly, in a similar use case as what you describe, I'm sure you can also imagine someone using what you are describing to actually avoid certain players in the competitive matchmaking - it would work both ways. In either of those cases, that goes against the spirit of the matchmaking system. We do not want people selective choosing to try to find a match or not based on who they think may or may not be playing at the time. The system will work best when everyone has an equal shot at playing against any other player within the matchmaking limits set by the system. Introducing other selective pressure on the system would corrupt the integrity of that goal, so not something we want to see happen. Please understand, I'm sure there were other players like yourself who intended only positive things from acting in that way, but the system will work best when players don't introduce that kind of manipulation into matchmaking.
DeleteThe app must be malfunctioning lately. In my last 42 matches, my opponent has had better hands than me 23 times versus 19 for me. For those people who are worried about the app being biased towards the higher rated player, you should get in more games before they fix it.
ReplyDeleteAt the end of a match it would be good to get an indication of how points one has gained or lost...
ReplyDeleteI would like to suggest a change in the time penalty for when someone disconnects from a match or allows the game to run out in an obvious losing situation. I recommend that if someone disconnects, the 5 minute timer does not start until the next time the person tries to log on. I think that would have a bigger effect on someone. This format of the penalty would not apply if the person selects the Quit option.
ReplyDeleteI like to add a comment regarding quitting…can we add resign button that doesn’t impact either play except to speed up the play between players when it’s obvious that the other player is going to win? I think this button would help address the 5 minute timer issue that is annoying to the player awaiting circle of death timer.
DeleteI know that you said that things this season hasn't changed and the math works out and everything. However, I know things are different this season. I generally don't make claims unless I have the data to back it up. Here are my matches 181 to 190 from last season and this season compared side by side. The format is as follows (my rating_opponent rating_points gained/loss):
ReplyDeleteLast Season: This season:
4363_3770 +4 4457_4261 -4
4367_3923 -12 4453_4075 +2
4355_3891 +5 4455_4455 -3
4360_3890 -12 4452_4003 +2
4348_4105 -10 4454_3396 +2
4338_3789 +4 4456_4454 -3
4342_3980 +5 4453_3712 +2
4347_3839 +4 4455_4027 +2
4351_3855 +5 4457_4220 +2
4356_3802 +3 4459_4081 +3
At the same point last season, I was generally gaining about 3 to 7 points per win vs 2 to 3 points this season. For losses, I was losing 8 to 12 points per loss last season vs 3 to 6 points this season. I guess that's why there's not much movement in the standings. Even if I were to win my next 40 matches in a row, I would probably gain less than 100 points.
Hi, I will be publishing more about why what you are seeing here is happening this season when I share the final results for the season and changes for the next season. I'll try for a shorter version here in the comments for now:
DeleteAs you mentioned, I have said that the algorithms have not changed, and that is true, they have not. After seeing a few people discuss this and ask questions on the topic, I did dive through a series of tests to make sure the system hadn't changed in any way as well. This involved pulling code from years back, comparing it and running it through a series of test calculations to make sure they produced identical results (which they did). However, after seeing that the confidence factors changed differently this season (they narrowed up faster, which is the cause of the numbers being different as you see), I dove into why and how that happened. After a lot of digging and testing, I found the cause. The underlying system we use to run the game servers on (like the operating system for it) was updated a while back for security and maintenance (bug fix) reasons, just before the new season started. In that update provided by the underlying systems, the math accuracy of that system was improved/fixed. Essentially, they fixed some bugs around "floating point math" (math involving large decimal numbers). Very large decimal numbers are an important part of the CR system.
So, the reason for the smaller changes in CR you are currently seeing is that the system confidence factor is much higher this season at this relative point in the season than it was in past seasons. With a high confidence factor, your CR is less fluid and more resistant to changes. The cause of this wasn't any intentional changes to how ranking is calculated, and as mentioned had nothing to do with our algorithms, but due to an underlying system update that improved how it does decimal math with higher precision now. This makes the system more accurate, but it also had this unintentional consequence of tightening up confidence factors faster.
We won't be making changes in the middle of the season, but I have been running multiple potential changes through the testing environment and I am considering some tweaks for next season. That said, my testing currently is showing that the tweaks I have tried would sacrifice accuracy in ranking for larger adjustments later in the season, and I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that as a solution. This will involve a lot of work still, so thanks for your patience.
Thanks for the clarification. It's just usually such high confidence levels don't come into effect until like 500 matches in.
DeleteI swear though to this guys credit he does defend the app to the absolute fullest. I’ve been playing the app for a couple months. I’ve played for decades though in real life, mostly behind closed doors.
ReplyDeleteI wish the game kept track of 16 and 24 point hands. I watch these higher ranked players consistently get 16-24 point hands, and often in the clutch part of the game near the end. And it will overtake my pegging and etc like setting my cribs to grind through the game. And this is something I notice pretty regularly. Like when I’m doing competitive matchmaking and my win streak is over 2, to be honest….
I also know it’s higher level completion on the app then jail and etc. but you can’t fool my memory. I get on average maybe one 16 point hand every 2 games. And players that have xp levels higher then 70 when I play them they consistently get multiple 16+ point hands every day. It’s inexplicable. And you can defend it with long answers and whatever you want. But I’m just saying how it feels after a month playing……
Without any data or proof to back it up, it's hard to take any of your claims seriously. There was a time when it seemed that my opponent's were getting way more 20+ hands than I was. For my sanity's sake, I decided to keep track of 20+ hands for me and my opponents. Of the 7 seasons I kept track of this stat, here are the results:
DeleteTotal # of 20+ hands for me: 534
Total # of 20+ hands for my opponents: 517
The difference is statistically insignificant. You'd get similar results by flipping a coin. I don't keep track of this stat any more as it is a pointless stat to keep track of. What ultimately matters is the hand and crib averages for you and your opponent. However, I find it insulting that you're implying we're winning more because of a biased random number generator. This is without any data or any other proof to back up your claims, but just based on mere "observations". However, as demonstrated by my meticulous data taking, your perception that good players are getting way more 20+ hands than you is probably just due to human observation bias.
Although statistics aren’t available for 24 hands, they are available for 28 hands and 29 hands. Awhile back I ran the numbers for a million or so games and the incidence of 28 and 29 hands matched very closely with the calculated probabilities. You can check these numbers yourself.
DeleteFor one thing I really really don’t believe that you kept track of your 16 and 24 point hands for 2 years. I guess you have data that regular users like i can’t see. But I’m saying i don’t believe you flat out. You sound like a narcissist type person that makes up numbers that you hope people don’t actually check, so you sound smart and correct.
DeleteTwice this morning I’ve been playing competitive matchmaking and had losses come to higher ranked opponents. And both of those losses come with them having 16 point hands in the final hand. Inexplicable. It happens sometimes, but that’s like the 5th time it’s happened just this week.
That’s why people quit playing this game. Because nobody, absolutely NOBODY, will sit around and play a game that feels rigged long term. NOBODY.
It’s the fact that it’s the only app that offers live player vs player matchups. But like I said when you feel like the game is rigged eventually you just go back to the other apps……
Todd84h, you have the ability to prove to yourself that the game is fair, if you are willing to do a little work and document the number of large hands for and against you. If you are not willing to do that, all you have is a feeling, despite significant evidence that the deals and cuts on CribbagePro are absolutely random.
DeleteRegarding Dhrun recording his game data, I believe him, since he is a top tenth of one percent player. Maybe a little crazy, but still that good.
DeleteTo quote Lord Kelvin... "When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind."
DeleteAnyone else noticing the game lag with players has gotten worse over the past couple of weeks? Often it takes 1-2 seconds from selecting a card to having it play on the board. Doesn't happen all the time, just with players who are laggy but now it's worse.
ReplyDeleteWe have seen this with what looks like a small number of players, and I'm working to identify the cause and any potential fixes.
DeleteCould you explain in more detail ( for the non mathematicians) how the confidence factor works? This week I’ve matched up mostly with top 10 players but am only getting 4 or 5 points, 6 once for wins against top players. I understand that the confidence factor has tightened up this season but it still seems like one should get more than 4 or 5 pts for a win against top 10 players. Earlier today, I beat the #10 player and got 6 points, beat him/her again 2 hours later and got only 4. I’m getting only 4-5 points for match wins against players ranked 3,4 and 5. Would like to understand this better. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI can try. The confidence factor I'm referring to is simply describing how much volatility or flexibility there is to your current ranking. As the system gains confidence, it intentionally limits how much your rating can change from any win or loss. Seeing a smaller CR change is something that has been around towards the end of seasons since the beginning, but the biggest difference many are seeing this season is how quickly that happened and for more people. So it is an expected result that when the system is very confident that your ranking is correct, it takes more to make it move and lose that confidence. If somehow your confidence were to drop, it would lower your CR with it but you would start seeing more CR change when you win too.
DeleteI neglected to add that since I am currently ranked in the top 10, I would expect the system to have more confidence and award more points for wins against other top 10 players.
ReplyDeleteYour ranking, top 10 or otherwise, is not something that is part of the confidence factor at all. The system can have a high confidence for any player at any level. What you may be referring to is the "expected outcome" of a match with someone of a similar current skill ranking. For that, yes the system will recognize that, but again since the confidence level is already very high for your individual ranking, it will not let your ranking change very much in anyway.
DeleteThis has been a painful season. Something has changed significantly. This was recognized early by users. The CR changes for both wins and losses is significantly smaller… about half of what it usually is at this point in the season. I have only recently seen acknowledgement of this in the blog. I have been top 50 for the last six seasons or so. Many have been a last minute push to get there. I have always looked and guesstimated about 7 points per win against a decent player to make up the gap when I am just below the top 50. I am currently about 20 points below this right now. A decent win streak would easily get me there in the past. I just played an equally ranked player and my CR went up 2 points for the win! It has been similar to this for weeks (2-3 points, 4 for a “big win”). At that pace I would have to net 10 games to get into the top 50. If I played 30 more matches and won 2/3 of them this would do it. That would be a good win streak. I love the game and generally love the app, but this is very frustrating. I will avoid going conspiracy theorist here and saying this is intended to make people play more games, but that certainly is the end result. It is extremely discouraging to see inertia slow the leader board to a crawl. Start well and no one can catch you. You’re out of luck if this isn’t the case. If future seasons are like this, I’m going to have to decide if it’s worth the time to play.
ReplyDeleteAs you mentioned, I have identified the cause of this unexpected change and I am actively working to address it for next season. What that's looking like right now is a complete rewrite of the calculation, and that involves a ton of work and testing. I have spent several weeks working on nothing else. I'm getting close now to the final solution, so it's looking good to be complete by the next season.
DeleteYour commitment to the platform is remarkable and appreciated. I have no doubt this was unforeseen. If you didn’t have to spend half your time defending the game, it would be a hell a of lot of easier. Thank God for data and facts (yes, they do exist!).
Delete