First dealer’s advantageCribbage Pro player Zerrick wondered what the odds were that the player with first deal will win the game. Across our entire sample we saw that the first dealer won the game 55.5% of the time. Broken down by the players’ skill levels (using the skill levels from the first post in this series), we get:
Probability first dealer wins game
|First dealer’s skill level|
First pone’s skill level
It’s interesting to see that when the two players’ skill levels are equal the first dealer wins 55% or 56% of the time. If you work through the math you see that no matter what skill levels are involved, a player is around 11% more likely to win if she deals first than if she deals second. [Editor's Note: This should be incentive as well for those "D" level players who are not seeing an advantage when facing the higher skilled "A" and "B" players and winning only 45% of the time even as first dealer. Start taking advantage of this and win more cribbage games by improving your cribbage strategy.]
Hand statisticsLast weekend a Cribbage Pro player named Kip beat me two out of three games, then stumped me with a cribbage statistics question: “How often do players hold double runs in their hands?” Good games, Kip. Here’s the answer to your question and a few more, with lots of colorful charts:
|Type of hand|
% Dealer's Crib
|Double pairs royale|
|Double double run|
As usual, all the numbers in the blog post come from our sample of several million cribbage hands. There’s some overlap in these numbers – a hand could hold a flush and a run, or a pair and a run. Interesting to see that double double runs (for example, 4-4-5-5-6) are more common than triple runs (like 4-4-4-5-6).
What about “15”s, you say? Here’s a little chart for you:
# fifteens in hand
Note that only 20% of dealer or pone hands have 0 fifteens, which means that most hands have at least one fifteen in them. Not only that, most hands actually have at least two 15s in them.
Points per handPut those all together, and how many points do you get? You get this!
# points in hand
Hands with an even number of points are more common than hands with an odd number of points. Looking at the first table explains why – most hands have pairs and 15s (which score even number of points), while only 23% of hands have single or triple runs (which can score an odd number of points).
It’s impossible to get a 19, 25, 26, or 27 point hand, so those entries don’t show up in the chart. 22, 23, 28, and 29 are possible, but show up so rarely that their bars aren’t visible. About one in 15,000 hands on Cribbage Pro scores 28 points, and about one in 220,000 scores 29 points.
The typical crib doesn’t have as many points as the typical hand, so this next chart looks a lot different. You can score more than 16 points in a crib, but we left those bars off because those scores happen so rarely that you wouldn’t be able to see them. Only about 1 in 1,000 cribs scores more than 16 points.
# points in crib
Pegging probabilitiesThe last chart in today’s post shows pegging probabilities:
# points pegged