Cribbage Strategy Discard Quiz - Pone Edition

It’s early August, and that means it's time for a Cribbage Pro discard quiz! We've listed some common hands below. See if you can figure which discard gives the best results for pone. Note that in all cases you're playing as pone, so you'll be discarding into your opponent's crib.

We chose the hands below because they show up fairly often, and are frequently played in a suboptimal way. Before you take the quiz, you might want to review the Cribbage Pro discard table. In particular, note that you can minimize your opponent's crib by giving her K-10, Q-9, or K-9; and you'll maximize the points in your opponent’s crib by discarding 5-5, 7-8, or 2-3.

We rate each discard by its net effect on pone's points:

points pegged by pone

+ points in pone's hand

- points in dealer's crib

- points pegged by dealer

We don't take into account points scored in dealer's hand since pone's discard doesn't affect those points.

2♠ 3♥ 9♦ 10♣ J♠ Q♥

Should you keep the run and give dealer your 2-3? Or should you break up the run in order to poison your opponent's crib? We've seen the best results for the players who split up the run and give their opponent the Q-9. Only 44% of players get this one right, though. Keeping 2-3-10-J leaves you you two fifteens, good pegging (lead the 3), and on average gives dealer a terrible crib.

Here's a breakdown of the average points scored for each of the two discards. Keeping 2-3-10-J gives pone slightly more points, but the real advantage is that discarding 9-Q lowers dealer's average crib by more than three points (compared to the 2-3 discard).

Discard	9♦ Q♥	2♠ 3♥
Pone points pegged	1.78	1.63
Pone points in hand	7.04	6.76
Dealer points pegged	3.06	3.78
Dealer points in crib	4.05	7.39

A♠ 2♥ 3♦ 4♣ 7♦ 8♥

Would you toss A-7? If so you're an elite discarder: only 37% of players get this right. A lot of players toss the 7-8 into their opponents crib in order to keep their run of four. Don't do that: the 2-3-4-8 gives you a 15 for two, and lessens your opponent's crib by 3.3 points!

Discard	A♠ 7♦	7♦ 8♥
Pone points pegged	2.34	2.98
Pone points in hand	8.32	8.21
Dealer points pegged	2.90	3.41
Dealer points in crib	4.42	7.79

7♠ 8♥ 9♦ 10♣ J♠ K♥

What's the right move here? Go for the run of four (7-8-9-10) and toss your opponent J-K? Or break up your run and put 10-K in your opponent's crib? Very few players get this right, but the correct answer is: toss the 10-K. On average dealer ends up with 1.7 fewer points in his crib, which makes 10-K the right discard.

Discard	10♣ K♥	J♠ K♥
Pone points pegged	2.34	2.98
Pone points in hand	8.32	8.21
Dealer points pegged	2.90	3.41
Dealer points in crib	4.42	7.79

2♠ 4♥ 5♦ 8♣ 9♠ J♥

Everyone's got a different way to play this one. Discarding 2-4, 2-8, 4-9, and 8-J and are all popular discards. The most popular choice is to discard the 2-4, but the best discard is 4-9. Compared to 2-4, the 4-9 discard limits dealers pegging and stifles her crib.

Discard	4♥ 9♠	2♠ 4♥
Pone points pegged	1.81	2.08
Pone points in hand	6.31	4.76
Dealer points pegged	3.26	4.11
Dealer points in crib	4.31	5.00

A♥ 2♠ 4♠ 5♣ 6♠ 10♥

Most players toss A-2, but they can do better than that. The 2-10 discard gives dealer fewer points on average, and keeping the A-4 combination gives you an extra 1.6 points of pegging on average. This holds for any card that counts 10: pone should discard 2-J from A-2-4-5-6-J, 2-Q from A-2-4-5-6-Q, and 2-K from A-2-4-5-6-K.

Discard	2♠ 10♥	A♥ 2♠
Pone points pegged	3.07	1.72
Pone points in hand	8.86	9.75
Dealer points pegged	3.49	3.77
Dealer points in crib	4.31	4.77

2♥ 3♠ 5♠ 6♣ 9♠ J♥

It seems counterintuitive to give your opponent a 6-9, but that's the right play here. A lot of players toss the 2-3 in this situation, but our discard data shows that 2-3 is a more dangerous discard than 6-9.

A♠ 2♥ 3♠ 4♣ 6♠ 9♦

A lot of players are throwing 6-9, but they'd gain a few points if they kept 2-3-4-6 and discarded A-9.

A♣ 2♥ 4♠ 8♣ 10♦ K♠

Once again, 10-K is the right discard. Your hand will score fewer points, but you'll peg more and your opponent's crib will have fewer points. A-2-4-8 pegs well, so when you're dealt A-2-4-7-8-K you should keep the A-2-4-8 and throw 7-K into opponent's crib.

A♥ 3♥ 4♣ 7♦ 10♠ K♠

You've guessed it: 10-K is the way to go. Keeping the A-3-4-7 is good for pegging (if you lead the 4), and the 10-K discard shuts down dealer's crib.

3♠ 4♦ 6♣ 7♣ 9♠ J♥

The wrong (but most common) discard is 7-J. You'll score better if you discard 3-J: better pegging and a lower scoring crib for the dealer.

2♠ 3♥ 4♠ 8♣ 9♠ 10♦

Oh, here's a good one. The right move? Toss the 8-10. A lot of players toss the 8-9 here, but that sets dealer up for a nice crib. Some players toss 2-3, but that leaves them with too few points in their hand. 2-3-4-9 strikes the right balance of a poor crib for dealer, with a good hand and good pegging for pone.

A♥ 2♠ 3♥ 5♦ 5♣ 9♠

Tossing the 2-3 is pretty scary, but it leaves you with six points. Tossing the A-9 gives dealer fewer points in her crib, but leaves you with only four points in your hand. Hmm.. What's the right choice? Toss the A-9. Discarding 2-3 almost guarantees your opponent a great crib. Keeping the 2-3 increases your pegging potential, especially if you lead the 3. So on balance A-9 is the right discard here.

2♠ 3♥ 7♦ 8♣ 9♠ 10♥

Don't toss that 2-3!!! Toss 10-3 or 10-2 instead. You'll score fewer points in your hand, but you'll more than make up for that by shutting down dealer's crib.

How can we help you?

Do you frequently run into a hand that flusters you? Leave us a comment below and we'll tell you what our data suggests.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).

Cribbage Strategy - Timing Your Opponent

Up until now this blog has focused on how to play your cards, but there’s another important part of cribbage strategy: playing your opponent. Let’s see what you can tell about your opponent’s hand from the amount of time it takes them to play.

How good is your opponent’s hand?

Did your opponent discard quickly, or did they take several seconds to choose their discard? That timing turns out to be a great indicator of the strength of their hand. When your opponent discards in just a second or two she (on average) has a stronger hand than she does when she takes 15 seconds or more:

Our data shows that when dealers take only a second or two to discard they've scored around 16.5 points during the hand (between pegging, counting her hand, and counting her crib). When dealers have taken more than 15 seconds to decide they've scored, on average, around 15.2 points

Dealers that take a long time are also much less likely to end up with a big game-changing hand. We've seen that dealers scored 20 or more points in 27% of the hands where they've made their decision in 2 seconds or less, but only in 20% of the hands where it took them more than 15 seconds to decide.

The difference is even more dramatic for pone. We've seen that pone averaged 11.4 points (between pegging and counting her hand) on the hands when her discard decision was made in one or two seconds, but only 9.5 points when pone took longer than 15 seconds. And pone scores 20 or more points in 5% of the hands that were decided in one or two seconds, but only 2% of hands that took longer than 15 seconds.

You can use this information when deciding whether to play offense or defense. Instead of using our dealer/pone averages of 16 and 10, you can estimate your opponent’s end-of-hand position based on the the above table and her discard time.

“Should you pair your opponent’s lead” revisited

When pone discards quickly she’s more likely to keep a pair, and therefore more likely to lead from a pair. Be extra cautious about pairing your opponent’s lead when she discarded quickly. In an earlier blog post we suggested that you should only pair a great player’s lead if she leads with a 3, 4, or 8. Our data shows that pairing pone’s lead is even more dangerous when she discarded quickly -- in that case the 4 is the only lead card you can pair without giving up more points than you gain on average.

The chart and table below have the details. They show the probability that pone is setting you up for a trap with her lead card (that is, that pone would score three of a kind for 6 points if you paired her lead card), broken down by the amount of time it took pone to discard, and pone’s lead card. (Note that the numbers aren't the same as in our earlier blog post. Since then we've added a few million additional hands of data to our sample, and the statistics have shifted a little).

Probability pone’s lead is a trap (when lead is different rank than cut)

Lead card	Overall	If pone discarded slowly	If pone discarded quickly
A	49.68%	45.54%	54.52%
2	39.46%	36.80%	48.51%
3	27.30%	25.02%	37.19%
4	23.79%	20.74%	34.15%
5	43.42%	40.92%	54.55%
6	36.22%	29.67%	51.92%
7	31.95%	27.58%	46.16%
8	28.54%	24.73%	36.11%
9	34.58%	27.73%	58.45%
10	35.18%	28.29%	51.65%
J	35.84%	28.59%	50.82%
Q	32.42%	27.79%	41.86%
K	32.44%	28.38%	37.25%

Next topic: a question from Craig

Cribbage Pro player Craig sent an email asking what pairs were most likely to show up in pone’s hand, and what were most likely to show up in dealer’s hand. The results are interesting: pone is more likely to keep a pair in her hand, and significantly more likely to keep a pair of cards 5 or higher. About 6% of pone hands include a pair of fives, vs. only 5.2% of dealer hands.

Also interesting is that fact that most hands include a pair. In fact, around 60% of pone hands include at least one pair.

Here are the gory details for the mathematically inclined:

Pair	% Dealer Hands	% Pone Hands
A	4.2%	4.3%
2	4.3%	4.4%
3	4.6%	4.9%
4	4.9%	5.1%
5	5.2%	6.0%
6	4.8%	5.2%
7	4.4%	5.1%
8	4.3%	4.9%
9	4.5%	4.9%
10	4.6%	5.0%
J	4.6%	5.0%
Q	4.3%	4.6%
K	4.0%	4.4%

More questions?

We love answering these types of questions. Do you have another one for us? Just leave a comment and we’ll see about answering it.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).

New Game, 5of99 Released on Android!

Fuller Systems is excited to announce our new game, 5of99, which just went live this morning. If you are on Android and like a challenging game mixed with a classic "5 in a row" concept, check it out at the Google Play Store!

You can also visit the new 5of99 game web site to read about the rules in the game, including screenshots from the game as well.

Cribbage Strategy - Test Your Pegging I.Q.

Looking for a way to pass the time between games of cribbage? How about playing a game about cribbage!

This week we've got a quiz for you to test your pegging instincts. We've scoured hundreds of thousands of cribbage games to analyze the pegging potential of each cribbage hand. How well does your intuition agree with our data?

Chose your role (Dealer or Pone), and your strategy (Offense: score as many points as possible; Defense: keep your opponent's pegging as low as possible; or Net Points: maximize your points while minimizing your opponent's).

Have a question about one of our answers? Can't figure out why 5-K-K-K is such a lousy pegging hand for dealer? Send us an email or comment below, and we'll give more detail on your question in a future blog post.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).

Offense vs Defense Cribbage Strategy

Last week we brought up the idea of choosing your cribbage strategy based on board position (that is, based on your score and your opponent’s score). This week we’ll help you decide when you should play offense and when you should play defense.

What does playing offense mean? It means scoring points at the risk of giving your opponent points: throwing a pair in your opponent’s crib in order to keep a great hand for yourself, or pairing your opponent’s lead at the risk of letting them score three-of-a-kind.

What does it mean to play defense? It’s the exact opposite: keeping a bad hand so that you can throw terrible cards in your opponent’s crib, or ignoring the opportunity to pair or score a run during pegging so that you can keep your opponent’s score down.

How to choose your strategy 

We’ll get to the gory details below, but here’s an executive summary to get you started. When your score is close to your opponent’s (and it frequently is), you can use the table below to help decide your strategy. Follow these steps:

1. Count the points in your hand.
2. Make a guess at the points in your crib (if you’re the dealer).
3. Add in a point or two for pegging.
4. Look up this end-of-hand score in the table below to decide how to play.

If your score is close to or tied with your opponent’s, and your end-of-hand score is between...	Dealer should play...	Pone should play...
61 to 75	Defense	Offense
76 to 86	Offense	Defense
87 to 101	Defense	Offense
102 to 112	Offense	Defense
113 to 120	Defense	Offense

For instance, if you’re playing as dealer and your and your opponent’s end-of-hand scores are between 102 and 113 then you should play offense. If you’re playing as pone and your and your opponent’s end-of-hand scores are between 76 and 87 then you should play defense.

If you’re more of a visual person you might prefer to look up your end-of-hand score on the board below to choose your strategy. Dealer should play offense (and pone should play defense) when her end-of-hand position puts her in a green area, and defense when her end-of-hand position puts her in a red area. Pone should do the opposite -- play offense in the red areas, and defense in the green areas.

We’re going to dig into the gory details now, but if you want some more advice on what exactly “offense” and “defense” mean you can just skip to the end of the article.

Remember, look up your estimated end-of-hand score on the board (and in the table), not your current score.

Dealer’s win probabilities

Where did these strategies come from? Let’s take another look at our chart from last week, which shows the probability the dealer will win based on dealer’s and pone’s scores immediately before the deal:

Remember that the point of offensive play is to score points even at the risk of letting your opponent score. So let’s see what would happen to dealer’s chances of winning if she had played offensively, and each player had pegged an additional two points above and beyond what they would have scored with typical play:

These charts are getting more and more complicated, and this one deserves a little explanation. This chart shows the increase or decrease in the probability that the current dealer would win if both dealer and pone had scored an additional 2 points in a previous deal. Or to put it another way, it tells us whether or not the dealer should have played offensively on her previous hands. The chart is marked green in areas where the dealer is more likely to win when both players scores are increased by two, and red where the dealer is more likely to lose.

Looking at our first (orange/blue) chart, we can see that the dealer has a 59% chance of winning the game when the score is tied at 95 (one line past the one labeled “90”). If the score were tied at 97 (that is, if each player had scored 2 more points), the dealer would instead have a 65% chance of going on to win. (I know it’s hard to tell the difference between a 59% and a 65% on that first chart -- you’ll have to trust me that those are the correct numbers). If dealer had played her previous hand more aggressively she’d be in a better position to win: an extra two points for dealer and for her opponent would actually give dealer an extra 6% chance of winning (65% - 59%). Because of this the chart shows a nice bright green at position 97/97.

The story would be different if the scores were tied at 80 (two lines before the one labeled “90”). With both players tied at hole 80 the dealer has a 62% chance of winning the game. Tied at 82, a red area, the dealer has a 59% chance of winning the game. This time dealer would have been better off if she’d play more defensively in previous hands. She’d have increased her likelihood of winning by 3% if she’d forced her opponent to peg two fewer points, even it had cost her two points.

The red and green blobs in this chart correspond to the white wave running through the first chart. The blobs get fainter and fainter as you move to the bottom left of the chart, but they’re still there -- alternating red and green. An interesting fact is that the areas repeat every 26 points: there’s a green area centered around 95 points, and another 26 points earlier centered around 69 points; and the red area centered around 80 points has an echo 26 points earlier centered around 54 points. This 26 point cycle shows up because players average 26 points every two deals (16 points as dealer, and 10 points as pone), and is the basis for DeLynn Colvert’s Theory of 26.

Use the red and green blobs to your advantage

This red/green chart gives us another method for deciding when to play offense and when to play defense: estimate your and your opponent’s next starting position, find the position on the chart, and base your decision on the chart’s color.

For example, let’s say you’re at hole 85 as pone, with dealer at hole 80. You keep 6-6-7-8 in your hand, and dealer cuts a 10. You've got 10 points in your hand, so you’ll start in hole 95 next turn if you don’t peg. Dealer averages 16 points (between hand, crib, and pegging), so she’ll probably start around hole 96 next turn. Looking at our chart you see that 95/96 points for dealer/pone puts you squarely inside a green section of the chart. You’d like to start further ahead, so if you see the opportunity to peg a few extra points you should take it, even if it means giving your opponent a few points, too.

If the positions were reversed (you as dealer from hole 80, pone starting at 85) you should reverse your strategy and play defensively.

Play for position or play for points?

Note that the strength of the colors increases as you get closer to the end of the game, which means the importance of offensive and defensive play increases as the game goes on. Our chart shows a very faint pink area around 25 or 30 points. That early in the game the effects of correct offensive or defensive play are so small that it’s probably better not to concentrate on offense or defense, and instead to focus on increasing your lead over your opponent (or catching up with her).

Exercise moderate offense or defense between 60 and 86 points

Position really starts to be important after you’re halfway through the game, as shown by the darker green and red blobs. When you and your opponent are between 60 and 86 points you should start practicing moderate offense or defense: try to manipulate your opponent’s position without sacrificing too many points.

Moderate offense means:

• Pairing your opponent when she leads a 9 or higher
• Getting involved in a run if you think you’ll end up with as many points as your opponent

Moderate defense means:

• Not pairing your opponent when she leads a 3 or a 4
• No getting involved in a run, even if you think you’ll end up with more points than your opponent

Exercise serious offense or defense between 87 and 109 points

Between 87 and 119 points things you've started getting into the endgame, and the importance of positional play has become very important. Proper positional play here can make a big difference in your win rate. Start playing serious offense or defense, depending on where your end-of-hand score puts you on the board.

Serious offense means:

• Trying to entice your opponent into getting involved in a run. For example, if you’re holding A/2/3/J and opponent leads a 4, play your 3 and hope that she plays a 5 or a 2 (run for three) so that you can make a run of four
• Lead a ten card from A/J/Q/K, in the hopes that you’ll end up with a 31 for 2 points (even if means you’ll get paired)

Serious defense means:

• Lead from a card lower than 5, even if you’ve got a pair. For instance, normally you should lead a 7 from 4/6/7/7, hoping for a three-of-a-kind. In defensive mode you should lead the 4, even though you’ll average 0.6 points more when you lead the 7
• Lead the 6 from 6-7-8-9 (you’ll score more with the 8, but your opponent scores fewer points if you lead the 6)

Exercise extreme offense or defense starting at 110 points

At the very end of the game everything changes. If your opponent is going to be starting as pone next turn within 10 points of winning then you have to do everything in your power to keep them from scoring. This means being willing to peg 0 points and score 0 points in your hand in order to keep them as far away as possible from the final hole. Pone will average 10 points between her hand and crib, so putting her within 10 points of pegging out is a very dangerous situation.

On the other hand, if you’re going to start in this position as pone you shouldn't play particularly offensively. You’ll count first, and you’ll likely go out before your opponent has a chance to count. Giving your opponent more points would just increase the chance that she’ll be close enough to peg out next turn.

Extreme defense means:

• Don’t play cards that would let your opponent start a run. For instance, if your opponent plays an 8 you shouldn't play the 7 for 15-2, since she could play a 9 or 6 for a run. Even if you have a 9 and a 6 and could make a run of four you still don’t want to do this, since you could give your opponent points
• Lead low pairs. For example, lead the A from A,A,2,3. You won’t score 15 for 2 if your opponent plays a 10 card, but you cut down on her ability to pair your lead

That’s plenty for this week

That’s the end of a whirlwind tour of a dense topic. Do you have a specific hand you’re interested in analyzing? Would you like some advice on a tricky board position? Let us know and we’ll tell you how and when to play it for offense and defense. Just leave us a comment below.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).

Cribbage Strategy and Board Position

Today we’re introducing a topic that, more than any other, separates casual players from expert players: board position. Expert players take their own score (board position) and that of their opponent into account when deciding how to play. Based on board position an expert player will play offensively (scoring more points themselves at the risk of letting their opponent score), or defensively (limiting their opponents points, even if that means scoring fewer points themselves).

Why play defense?

Why would someone do this? Let’s take an extreme example. The score is tied at 109, your opponent is dealing, you keep 3-3-10-10 in your hand and the cut is a 2:

You lead your 3, and your opponent plays a 3 for two points. What’s your play? Playing your remaining 3 would give you six points, but let’s think about that play a little.

• You need 12 points to win
• You’ve got 12 points in your hand
• Dealer needs 12 points to win
• You count first
• So you win as long as dealer pegs fewer than 12 points

The only way dealer is going to win is if he has the fourth 3 and pegs 12 points from four-of-a-kind.  Play the 10 and guarantee yourself the win. Dealer probably doesn’t have the fourth 3, but by not playing your second 3 you’ve gone from “probably going to win” to “definitely going to win”.

Why play offense?

Imagine you have the same hand, but the score is tied at 106.

The equation changes significantly:

• You need 15 points to win
• You’ve only got 12 points in your hand
• Dealer needs 15 points to win
• Dealer averages 16 points per deal (between pegging, hand, and crib -- see the first post in this series for more details)
• Dealer will very likely win unless you peg at least 3 points

Executive summary: play your second 3 for six points and you’ll win unless dealer holds that fourth 3 (in which case dealer will score 2 for his pair, 12 for his pairs royal, and score another 1 for a go).

The decisions to play offense at hole 109 and defense at hole 106 both come from straightforward logic, and in both cases the strategy is dictated by board position. A 3 point difference in position completely changes the way you should play your hand.

Winning probabilities

The logic was easy in those last examples because you know you have a 100% chance of winning if you can make it to 121 points. There are opportunities to use this kind of logic earlier in the game. To understand these opportunities better let’s look at another chart built from our millions of hands of Cribbage Pro multiplayer game data. The key to improving your game in this chart: it’s the white wave running along the diagonal line.

The chart shows the probability the dealer will win, based on dealer and pone’s scores immediately before the deal. The line down the middle shows the cases where dealer and pone have the same score, and has ticks marked off every 5, 10, and 30 points. Bright orange means we’ve never seen dealer win from that position, bright blue means we’ve never seen dealer lose, and bright white means that dealer and pone each won 50% of the time. Light orange means pone is favored to win, and light blue means dealer is favored to win. The chart is grey when we don’t have any games in our sample that were at that combination of points.

Of course the chart gets more blue as you move to the right (since the dealer’s more likely to win if his score increases and pone’s doesn’t). And of course it gets more orange as you move towards the top of the chart. But notice that the color changes as you move diagonally up and to the right, because of that white wave. The wave is weak in the bottom of the left, but it repeats itself in 26 points cycles, getting stronger and stronger until it reaches the top right of the chart. The waves are what make board position so important.

Looking closely you can see that the chart is very orange when the score is tied at 115, and very blue when the score is tied at 105.

When the scores are tied at 115 dealer is at a big disadvantage. Pone counts first and only needs 6 points to go out, so pone will usually win if dealer doesn’t peg 6 points. When the scores are tied at 105 the situation is reversed. Pone has to score 16 points to go out, but we’ve seen that pone averages only 10 points between her hand and pegging. We’ve also seen that 16 points is average for a dealer, across hand, crib, and pegging, so starting from hole 105 dealer will usually go out after counting her crib, or will be close enough to peg out the next hand.

Dealer has a huge advantage when the scores are tied at 105, and a huge disadvantage at hole 115. Neither player has a point lead in either of the two positions, but the likely winner has changed. Why? Because the two positions are on different sides of that wave.

How do you ride the waves?

Throughout the game you’re given opportunities to take points at the risk of giving more points to your opponent. Good players will use these opportunities to ride the waves, sacrificing points when necessary to keep their opponents from moving ahead, and giving points to their opponents when necessary to score a few extra points themselves.

Think about your position on the wave whenever you have the opportunity to score points while potentially giving your opponent points. Would you be in a better position if you moved up and to the right in the chart? If so, take the points. If not, turn them down and keep your opponent from scoring, too.

Let’s take a common example. You (as pone) are in hole 96, with dealer in hole 90. You’re holding 5-J-Q-K, for 9 points, so you’ll start from hole 105 as dealer next turn. On average, dealer scores 16 points per deal (between pegging, hand, and crib), so with a typical hand he’ll be in hole 106 at the start of the next turn. 105/106 is a nice blue spot on our chart, so you should peg defensively to keep your position.

You start the play with your Queen and dealer plays a 5 for two points. Should you pair the 5? You’ll be in a good position to win next turn, so you don’t really need the points. Pairing the 5 gives dealer the opportunity to make three-of-a-kind for 6 points, which would knock you out of your sweet spot on the wave. The right play is to turn down the points, and play your Jack or King instead.

If you were starting 10 points back (you at 86, dealer at 80), pairing the 5 would probably be the right play. You’re a little out of position, and you’d really like to move forward at the risk of moving your opponent forward, too.

We’ll go into detail next week, with more precise instructions on exactly when to play offense and when to play defense.

Homework

While you’re waiting for next week’s article we suggest reading DeLynn Colvert’s excellent book Play Winning Cribbage. His groundbreaking Theory of 26 gives advice on board position starting from the very first hand of the game, and is well worth studying. Some of his thoughts about the Theory of 26 are also available at the American Cribbage Congress website.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).