Cribbage Strategy Discard Quiz - Dealer Edition

Mid-August has arrived, bringing with it the Cribbage Pro dealer discard quiz. Same rules as last week: we show a common hand, and you (playing as dealer) guess which discard gives the best results.

Just like last week the crib is often the deciding factor, so you might want to take another look at the Cribbage Pro discard table before starting the quiz.

We rate each discard by its net effect on dealer’s points:

    points pegged by dealer
    + points in dealer's hand
    + points in dealer's crib
    - points pegged by pone

We don’t take into account the points scored in pone's hand or the points scored due to heels (cutting a jack), since dealer’s discard doesn't affect those points.

A♠ 2♥ 3♦ 4♣ Q♠ K♥

Most players discard Q-K in this situation, probably to keep the A-2-3-4 run together. About 5% of players discard the 2-3 in this situation, probably because our discard table shows that the 2-3 discard gives particularly good cribs.

Here’s a breakdown of the average points scored for each of the two discards.

Discard	2♥ 3♦	Q♠ K♥
Dealer points pegged	2.99	3.95
Dealer points in hand	6.99	7.84
Dealer points in crib	7.02!!	3.49
Pone points pegged	1.56	2.45
Dealer's net points	15.43	12.83

Dealers who discard Q-K actually peg more and have higher scoring hands, but the 2-3 gives dealer a significantly larger crib and keeps pone from pegging as much. Executive summary: discard the 2-3 and on average you'll net an extra 2.6 points.

2♠ 3♥ 4♦ 5♣ 9♦ Q♥

This hand poses a similar dilemma. Keep the run of four, or give yourself a gift in the crib? Once again most players keep the run, and once again that doesn't work out very well for them. Our discard table shows why: Q-9 is the second worst discard (after K-10), and discarding Q-9 instead of Q-5 weakens dealer's crib by almost 4 points.

Discard	5♣ Q♥	9♦ Q♥
Dealer points pegged	4.00	4.59
Dealer points in hand	8.08	8.18
Dealer points in crib	6.56!!	2.81
Pone points pegged	1.80	2.69
Dealer's net points	16.83	12.90

2♠ 3♥ 4♦ 5♣ 7♠ 9♥

Have you figured out the pattern? Most players keep the 2-3-4-5, but about 10% keep 2-3-4-9. You would do well to emulate those 10%: discard the 5-7 and you’ll net an extra 2.1 points, primarily due to your superior crib.

Discard	5♣ 7♠	7♠ 9♥
Dealer points pegged	4.09	4.64
Dealer points in hand	8.01	8.28
Dealer points in crib	5.77	3.82
Pone points pegged	1.63	2.61
Dealer's net points	16.24	14.13

2♠ 3♥ 5♦ 7♣ 9♠ J♥

Hopefully by now we've convinced you to put good cards in your crib. Sometimes you've got a lot of good cards and you’re not sure which should go in your crib. When dealt this hand (2-3-5-7-9-J) we’ve seen some dealers discard 2-3, some discard 5-J, and some discard 7-9. Which one should you go with? Once again, the discard table comes to the rescue: 2-3 gives the best results of any of our possible discards, and gives dealer about 2 more net points than the 7-9 discard.

Most players discard 7-9 in this situation, probably to keep the 2-3 and the 5 together with the Jack. An interesting fact about cribbage is that your hand (or crib) is guaranteed at least two points if it has a combination of cards that add up to 5 (see the Wikipedia Cribbage Statistics page for an explanation why). So even though discarding the 2-3 means you lose your 15 for the 2-3-J combination you’re guaranteed to make it up with at least 2 points in your crib.

Discard	2♠ 3♥	7♠ 9♥
Dealer points pegged	4.51	3.72
Dealer points in hand	5.40	7.28
Dealer points in crib	7.02	3.78
Pone points pegged	2.22	2.02
Dealer's net points	14.70	12.76

A♥ 2♠ 3♠ 5♣ 6♠ 9♥

The best discard here is 5-6, with 2-3 a close second. But two thirds of Cribbage Pro players are sabotaging their cribs by discarding 6-9. Sure 6-9 gives a guaranteed 2 points in the crib, but we’ve already seen that a 2-3 or a 5 in our crib will guarantee us 2 points. Discarding 5-6 also leaves us with A-2-3-9 in our hand for a 15 and 2 points. You can bring your game up a notch by discarding 5-6 instead of 6-9 in this situation.

Discard	5♣ 6♠	6♠ 9♥
Dealer points pegged	3.67	4.67
Dealer points in hand	7.88	6.66
Dealer points in crib	6.40	4.77
Pone points pegged	1.82	2.67
Dealer’s net points	16.13	13.42

A♥ 5♠ 6♠ 7♣ 8♠ J♥

Half of the Cribbage Pro players toss the A-J; the other half toss the 5-J. Keeping the 5 in your hand helps a little with pegging (an extra 0.8 points on average), but tossing the 5-J raises your crib’s value by 3.3 points. The correct discard from this hand is 5-J.

2♠ 3♥ 4♠ 5♣ 6♠ 9♦

It’s tempting to discard the 2-9 (to keep the 3-4-5-6 run), or 6-9 (to put a 15 for 2 in your crib), but the best discard here is 2-3, which nets dealer an extra 3 points over the 2-9 or 6-9 discards..

2♣ 3♥ 5♠ 6♣ 9♦ J♠

Tossing 6-9 guarantees us at least 6 points (two points each for 2-3-J, 5-J, and 6-9). But our cribbage math also tells us that 2-3 guarantees us six points (5-J, 6-9, and at least two points in our crib, since 2-3 add to 5). Since you've read this far you've probably already guessed that we recommend discarding 2-3. The 2-3 discard gives you an extra 2 point net over the 6-9 discard.

2♥ 3♥ 4♣ 5♦ 10♠ K♠

The most popular discard from this hand is the 10-K, but our discard table shows us that a 10-K gives dealer a lower average crib than any other pair of cards. Discard the 5-10 instead and net an extra 3.1 points.

A♠ 2♦ 3♣ 6♣ 8♠ 9♥

Fewer than 10% of players get this right. Most players keep the run of three and discard the 6-8 or the 6-9, but let’s consider the 2-3 discard. Putting the 2-3 in your crib leaves you with A-6-8-9 in your hand, for a total of 4 points. We know that a 2-3 in the crib guarantees at least 2 points, guaranteeing us a total of at least 6 points. That’s better than the 5 point guarantee for either the 6-8 or 6-9 discard. The 2-3 discard scores best here.

A♠ 2♥ 3♠ 4♣ 5♠ 6♦

We've suggested discarding 2-3 so many times in this article. This has to be a trick question, right? Nope, once again the answer is to discard 2-3. Most players discard A-2 in this situation, but the 2-3 discard gains dealer an extra 1.9 net points.

A♥ 2♠ 4♥ 5♦ 8♣ 9♠

This one's a little puzzling to me, but the data shows a clear winner. Put A-4 in your crib and you’ll average 0.8 net points more than you would if you'd discarded 5-8, and 1.0 more than if you'd discarded 2-4.

3♠ 4♥ 5♦ 6♣ 10♠ Q♥

Don't be afraid to split up that run. Keeping 4-5-6-10 instead of 3-4-5-6 gives you an extra point in your hand (an average of 10.3 instead of 9.3), an extra half a point in your crib, and lowers pone's pegging by 0.7 points. Putting the 10-Q in your crib seems like it opens up the possibility of a straight, but our discard tables show that open-ended straight draws rarely pay off.

We want to look at your hands

Here’s your opportunity to improve your cribbage skills. Just leave us a comment below telling us about a hand that’s troubling you. We’ll comb through our database and let you know which play gets the best results.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).

Cribbage Strategy Discard Quiz - Pone Edition

It’s early August, and that means it's time for a Cribbage Pro discard quiz! We've listed some common hands below. See if you can figure which discard gives the best results for pone. Note that in all cases you're playing as pone, so you'll be discarding into your opponent's crib.

We chose the hands below because they show up fairly often, and are frequently played in a suboptimal way. Before you take the quiz, you might want to review the Cribbage Pro discard table. In particular, note that you can minimize your opponent's crib by giving her K-10, Q-9, or K-9; and you'll maximize the points in your opponent’s crib by discarding 5-5, 7-8, or 2-3.

We rate each discard by its net effect on pone's points:

points pegged by pone

+ points in pone's hand

- points in dealer's crib

- points pegged by dealer

We don't take into account points scored in dealer's hand since pone's discard doesn't affect those points.

2♠ 3♥ 9♦ 10♣ J♠ Q♥

Should you keep the run and give dealer your 2-3? Or should you break up the run in order to poison your opponent's crib? We've seen the best results for the players who split up the run and give their opponent the Q-9. Only 44% of players get this one right, though. Keeping 2-3-10-J leaves you you two fifteens, good pegging (lead the 3), and on average gives dealer a terrible crib.

Here's a breakdown of the average points scored for each of the two discards. Keeping 2-3-10-J gives pone slightly more points, but the real advantage is that discarding 9-Q lowers dealer's average crib by more than three points (compared to the 2-3 discard).

Discard	9♦ Q♥	2♠ 3♥
Pone points pegged	1.78	1.63
Pone points in hand	7.04	6.76
Dealer points pegged	3.06	3.78
Dealer points in crib	4.05	7.39

A♠ 2♥ 3♦ 4♣ 7♦ 8♥

Would you toss A-7? If so you're an elite discarder: only 37% of players get this right. A lot of players toss the 7-8 into their opponents crib in order to keep their run of four. Don't do that: the 2-3-4-8 gives you a 15 for two, and lessens your opponent's crib by 3.3 points!

Discard	A♠ 7♦	7♦ 8♥
Pone points pegged	2.34	2.98
Pone points in hand	8.32	8.21
Dealer points pegged	2.90	3.41
Dealer points in crib	4.42	7.79

7♠ 8♥ 9♦ 10♣ J♠ K♥

What's the right move here? Go for the run of four (7-8-9-10) and toss your opponent J-K? Or break up your run and put 10-K in your opponent's crib? Very few players get this right, but the correct answer is: toss the 10-K. On average dealer ends up with 1.7 fewer points in his crib, which makes 10-K the right discard.

Discard	10♣ K♥	J♠ K♥
Pone points pegged	2.34	2.98
Pone points in hand	8.32	8.21
Dealer points pegged	2.90	3.41
Dealer points in crib	4.42	7.79

2♠ 4♥ 5♦ 8♣ 9♠ J♥

Everyone's got a different way to play this one. Discarding 2-4, 2-8, 4-9, and 8-J and are all popular discards. The most popular choice is to discard the 2-4, but the best discard is 4-9. Compared to 2-4, the 4-9 discard limits dealers pegging and stifles her crib.

Discard	4♥ 9♠	2♠ 4♥
Pone points pegged	1.81	2.08
Pone points in hand	6.31	4.76
Dealer points pegged	3.26	4.11
Dealer points in crib	4.31	5.00

A♥ 2♠ 4♠ 5♣ 6♠ 10♥

Most players toss A-2, but they can do better than that. The 2-10 discard gives dealer fewer points on average, and keeping the A-4 combination gives you an extra 1.6 points of pegging on average. This holds for any card that counts 10: pone should discard 2-J from A-2-4-5-6-J, 2-Q from A-2-4-5-6-Q, and 2-K from A-2-4-5-6-K.

Discard	2♠ 10♥	A♥ 2♠
Pone points pegged	3.07	1.72
Pone points in hand	8.86	9.75
Dealer points pegged	3.49	3.77
Dealer points in crib	4.31	4.77

2♥ 3♠ 5♠ 6♣ 9♠ J♥

It seems counterintuitive to give your opponent a 6-9, but that's the right play here. A lot of players toss the 2-3 in this situation, but our discard data shows that 2-3 is a more dangerous discard than 6-9.

A♠ 2♥ 3♠ 4♣ 6♠ 9♦

A lot of players are throwing 6-9, but they'd gain a few points if they kept 2-3-4-6 and discarded A-9.

A♣ 2♥ 4♠ 8♣ 10♦ K♠

Once again, 10-K is the right discard. Your hand will score fewer points, but you'll peg more and your opponent's crib will have fewer points. A-2-4-8 pegs well, so when you're dealt A-2-4-7-8-K you should keep the A-2-4-8 and throw 7-K into opponent's crib.

A♥ 3♥ 4♣ 7♦ 10♠ K♠

You've guessed it: 10-K is the way to go. Keeping the A-3-4-7 is good for pegging (if you lead the 4), and the 10-K discard shuts down dealer's crib.

3♠ 4♦ 6♣ 7♣ 9♠ J♥

The wrong (but most common) discard is 7-J. You'll score better if you discard 3-J: better pegging and a lower scoring crib for the dealer.

2♠ 3♥ 4♠ 8♣ 9♠ 10♦

Oh, here's a good one. The right move? Toss the 8-10. A lot of players toss the 8-9 here, but that sets dealer up for a nice crib. Some players toss 2-3, but that leaves them with too few points in their hand. 2-3-4-9 strikes the right balance of a poor crib for dealer, with a good hand and good pegging for pone.

A♥ 2♠ 3♥ 5♦ 5♣ 9♠

Tossing the 2-3 is pretty scary, but it leaves you with six points. Tossing the A-9 gives dealer fewer points in her crib, but leaves you with only four points in your hand. Hmm.. What's the right choice? Toss the A-9. Discarding 2-3 almost guarantees your opponent a great crib. Keeping the 2-3 increases your pegging potential, especially if you lead the 3. So on balance A-9 is the right discard here.

2♠ 3♥ 7♦ 8♣ 9♠ 10♥

Don't toss that 2-3!!! Toss 10-3 or 10-2 instead. You'll score fewer points in your hand, but you'll more than make up for that by shutting down dealer's crib.

How can we help you?

Do you frequently run into a hand that flusters you? Leave us a comment below and we'll tell you what our data suggests.

Editor's Note: This is a guest post by Aaron Harsh continuing the series on cribbage strategy and tips. Aaron lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Stacy and daughter Audrey. He spends his evenings analyzing cribbage strategy for Fuller Systems, and his days analyzing television viewership for Rentrak Corporation's Advanced Media & Information group. You can play him on Cribbage Pro Online as user "aaronhars", or in person at American Cribbage Congress grassroots club #28 (Oregon's Finest).